Scientific model flags risk of civilisation’s collapse by 2040

Le thème est bien connu des œuvres d’anticipations, la fin de notre modèle social voire de notre civilisation,  vient d’être prédit par une étude anglaise : si nous ne faisons rien, dans moins de 30 ans, de multiples catastrophes mettrons fin au monde tel que nous le connaissons…..  Tout dépend de nous pour l’éviter…

à lire et méditer

MLR

Une étude, publiée par le site d’investigation Medium, « prédit » un possible désastre à l’échelle mondiale, dans moins de trente ans. Elle démontre que si « nous ne changeons pas de cap », notre modèle économique et social pourrait mener à l’effondrement de notre civilisation.

Curated from La fin de notre civilisation pourrait-elle arriver en 2040 ?

 

“Food riots break out in urban areas across the Middle East, North Africa and Latin America. The euro weakens and the main European stock markets lose 10% of their value; US stock markets follow and lose 5% of their value.”

“What is striking about the scenario is that the probability of occurrence is estimated as significantly higher than the benchmark return period of 1:200 years applied for assessing insurers’ ability to pay claims against extreme events.”

“A global production shock of the kind set out in this scenario would be expected to generate major economic and political impacts that could affect clients across a very wide spectrum of insurance classes.”

“We ran the model forward to the year 2040, along a business-as-usual trajectory based on ‘do-nothing’ trends — that is, without any feedback loops that would change the underlying trend. The results show that based on plausible climate trends, and a total failure to change course, the global food supply system would face catastrophic losses, and an unprecedented epidemic of food riots. In this scenario, global society essentially collapses as food production falls permanently short of consumption.”

“… the general onset of collapse first appears at about 2015 when per capita industrial output begins a sharp decline. Given this imminent timing, a further issue this paper raises is whether the current economic difficulties of the global financial crisis are potentially related to mechanisms of breakdown in the Limits to Growth BAU [business-as-usual] scenario.”

Curated from Scientific model supported by UK Government Taskforce flags risk of civilisation’s collapse by 2040 — INSURGE intelligence — Medium

 

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